I’ve often wondered if the focus changed from extraction to sufficiency, would we advance as a society? Would scientific advances upset the balance? Maybe not if making a profit from such advances were not possible. Guess I should try building a model to examine the idea. 😆
Gene - this feels like one of the keystone models. The level of detail / simplicity seems just right. It occurs to me that most presentations are to an individual stakeholder group and that while one might show the entire model, the main focus is on the loop that they might be able to influence. I have been focused on population since the early 1950s in my 2nd year of high school. Took a coure in demography in college as part of my major in Earth Sciences / Geography in trying to figure out how the world worked and chose city, regional, national and world planning as sequential interests. Is there a place that I can see the html for the entire World3 model? Would it work to show the entire model and then to focus on the more detailed look relevant to a specific stakeholder group one is supporting to understand their future scencio and future options?
Nice simpler explanation, Gene. I believe Forrester thought World3 Limits to growth was too complex and preferred (trusted more?) his simpler model in his World DYnamics book. Most SD software has a version, including Insightmaker. at https://insightmaker.com/insight/4wpHY18l8OMhjRxk8VXat0/World2-Model-of-World-Dynamics I note the 1972 Limits to growth book uses more space on model outputs and scenarios than CLDs
Our research team also agrees that the world3 Model is simply too esoteric in addition to the fact that it actually makes a number of analytical errors. We will be releasing a System Dynamics model within the next several months that will outperform World 3 in causality, determinism, logical consistency, and explainability. We are positive we have discovered the exact mechanism of the decline of industrial society, and the timing window when this occurs. Consider subscribing to our endtropy.substack.com to see the results. All of our current articles right now are dismantling population projections and the effects of demographic decline on the global economy. But we are definitely building towards the master thesis statement of systems collapse as we integrate the other pillars into our analysis: population, natural resources, energy, and technology. Current published work is simply outputting our 40 000 word length source document into chunked posts.
I’ve often wondered if the focus changed from extraction to sufficiency, would we advance as a society? Would scientific advances upset the balance? Maybe not if making a profit from such advances were not possible. Guess I should try building a model to examine the idea. 😆
I evidently was assuming the discovery would be pointed to an extractive end.
Oh I see.
Don't think its the scientific advances as much as what people do with them.
Gene - this feels like one of the keystone models. The level of detail / simplicity seems just right. It occurs to me that most presentations are to an individual stakeholder group and that while one might show the entire model, the main focus is on the loop that they might be able to influence. I have been focused on population since the early 1950s in my 2nd year of high school. Took a coure in demography in college as part of my major in Earth Sciences / Geography in trying to figure out how the world worked and chose city, regional, national and world planning as sequential interests. Is there a place that I can see the html for the entire World3 model? Would it work to show the entire model and then to focus on the more detailed look relevant to a specific stakeholder group one is supporting to understand their future scencio and future options?
There's a link at the end of the first paragraph with a link to a complete model.
Seems I messed up the link to the HTML model. Just open this folder and download from there... https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/1Eo-NIv9shN1n3GIdtWZeXAEKKAtl553H?usp=drive_link
Nice simpler explanation, Gene. I believe Forrester thought World3 Limits to growth was too complex and preferred (trusted more?) his simpler model in his World DYnamics book. Most SD software has a version, including Insightmaker. at https://insightmaker.com/insight/4wpHY18l8OMhjRxk8VXat0/World2-Model-of-World-Dynamics I note the 1972 Limits to growth book uses more space on model outputs and scenarios than CLDs
Our research team also agrees that the world3 Model is simply too esoteric in addition to the fact that it actually makes a number of analytical errors. We will be releasing a System Dynamics model within the next several months that will outperform World 3 in causality, determinism, logical consistency, and explainability. We are positive we have discovered the exact mechanism of the decline of industrial society, and the timing window when this occurs. Consider subscribing to our endtropy.substack.com to see the results. All of our current articles right now are dismantling population projections and the effects of demographic decline on the global economy. But we are definitely building towards the master thesis statement of systems collapse as we integrate the other pillars into our analysis: population, natural resources, energy, and technology. Current published work is simply outputting our 40 000 word length source document into chunked posts.